PROSPECTS FOR DEMOCRACY
CONSOLIDATION IN AFRICA: NIGERIA'S
TRANSITION - BY GENERAL MOHAMMADU
BUHARI (CHATHAM HOUSE LONDON 26TH
FEBRUARY 2015)
Permit me to start by thanking Chatham House
for the invitation to talk about this important
topic at this crucial time. The 2015 general
election in Nigeria is generating a lot of
interests within and outside the country. This is
understandable. Nigeria, Africa’s most
populous country and largest economy, is at a
defining moment, a moment that has great
implications beyond the democratic project and
beyond the borders of my dear country.
So let me say upfront that the global interest in
Nigeria’s landmark election is not misplaced at
all and indeed should be commended, for this
is an election that has serious import for the
world. I urge the international community to
continue to focus on Nigeria at this very critical
moment. Given increasing global linkages, it is
in our collective interests that the postponed
elections should hold on the rescheduled dates,
that they should be free and fair, that their
outcomes should be respected by all parties,
and that any form of extension, under
whichever guise, is unconstitutional and would
not be tolerated.
With the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the
dissolution of the USSR in 1991, the collapse of
communism and the end of the Cold War,
democracy became the dominant and most
preferred system of government across the
globe. That global transition has been aptly
captured as the triumph of democracy and the
‘most pre-eminent political idea of our time.’
On a personal note, the phased end of the
USSR was a turning point for me. If you will,
that was my own road to Damascus experience.
It convinced me that change can be brought
about without firing a single shot. As you all
know, I had been a military head of state in
Nigeria for twenty months. We intervened
because we were unhappy with the state of
affairs in our country.
We wanted to arrest the drift. Driven by
patriotism, influenced by the prevalence and
popularity of such drastic measures all over
Africa and elsewhere, we fought our way to
power. But the global triumph of democracy
has shown that another, and a preferable, path
to change is possible. It is an important lesson
I have carried with me since, and a lesson that
is not lost on the African continent.
In the last two decades, democracy has grown
strong roots in Africa. Elections, once so rare,
are now so commonplace. As at the time I was
a military head of state between 1983 and
1985, only four African countries held regular
multi-party elections. But the number of
electoral democracies in Africa, according to
Freedom House, jumped to 10 in 1992/1993
then to 18 in 1994/1995 and to 24 in
2005/2006.
According to the New York Times, 42 of the 48
countries in Sub-Sahara Africa conducted multi-
party elections between 1990 and 2002. The
newspaper also reported that between 2000
and 2002, ruling parties in four African
countries (Senegal, Mauritius, Ghana and Mali)
peacefully handed over power to victorious
opposition parties. In addition, the proportion
of African countries categorized as not free by
Freedom House declined from 59% in 1983 to
35% in 2003. Without doubt, Africa has been
part of the current global wave of
democratisation.
But the growth of democracy on the continent
has been uneven. According to Freedom House,
the number of electoral democracies in Africa
slipped from 24 in 2007/2008 to 19 in
2011/2012; while the percentage of countries
categorised as ‘not free’ increased from 35% in
2003 to 41% in 2013. Also, there have been
some reversals at different times in Burkina
Faso, Central African Republic, Cote D’Ivoire,
Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mali,
Madagascar, Mauritania and Togo.
While we can choose to look at the glass of
democracy in Africa as either half full or half
empty. While you can’t have representative
democracy without elections, it is equally
important to look at the quality of the elections
and to remember that mere elections do not
democracy make. It is globally agreed that
democracy is not an event, but a journey. And
that the destination of that journey is
democratic consolidation—that state where
democracy has become so rooted and so
routine and widely accepted by all actors.
With this important destination in mind, it is
clear that though many African countries now
hold regular elections, very few of them have
consolidated the practice of democracy. It is
important to also state at this point that just
as with elections, a consolidated democracy
cannot be an end by itself. I will argue that it is
not enough to hold series of elections or even
to peacefully alternate power among parties.
It is much more important that the promise of
democracy goes beyond just allowing people to
freely choose their leaders. It is much more
important that democracy should deliver on the
promise of choice, of freedoms, of security of
lives and property, of transparency and
accountability, of rule of law, of good
governance and of shared prosperity. It is very
important that the promise embedded in the
concept of democracy, the promise of a better
life for the generality of the people, is not
delivered in the breach.
Now, let me quickly turn to Nigeria. As you all
know, Nigeria’s fourth republic is in its 16th
year and this general election will be the fifth in
a row. This is a major sign of progress for us,
given that our first republic lasted five years
and three months, the second republic ended
after four years and two months and the third
republic was a still-birth. However, longevity is
not the only reason why everyone is so
interested in this election.
The major difference this time around is that
for the very first time since transition to civil
rule in 1999, the ruling Peoples Democratic
Party (PDP) is facing its stiffest opposition so
far from our party the All Progressives
Congress (APC). We once had about 50
political parties, but with no real competition.
Now Nigeria is transiting from a dominant
party system to a competitive electoral polity,
which is a major marker on the road to
democratic consolidation. As you know,
peaceful alternation of power through
competitive elections have happened in Ghana,
Senegal, Malawi and Mauritius in recent times.
The prospects of democratic consolidation in
Africa will be further brightened when that
eventually happens in Nigeria.
But there are other reasons why Nigerians and
the whole world are intensely focussed on this
year’s elections, chief of which is that the
elections are holding in the shadow of huge
security, economic and social uncertainties in
Africa’s most populous country and largest
economy.
On insecurity, there is a genuine cause for
worry, both within and outside Nigeria. Apart
from the civil war era, at no other time in our
history has Nigeria been this insecure. Boko
Haram has sadly put Nigeria on the terrorism
map, killing more than 13,000 of our nationals,
displacing millions internally and externally,
and at a time holding on to portions of our
territory the size of Belgium. What has been
consistently lacking is the required leadership
in our battle against insurgency.
I, as a retired general and a former head of
state, have always known about our soldiers:
they are capable, well trained, patriotic, brave
and always ready to do their duty in the service
of our country. You all can bear witness to the
gallant role of our military in Burma, the
Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone,
Liberia, Darfur and in many other peacekeeping
operations in several parts of the world. But in
the matter of this insurgency, our soldiers have
neither received the necessary support nor the
required incentives to tackle this problem. The
government has also failed in any effort
towards a multi-dimensional response to this
problem leading to a situation in which we
have now become dependent on our neighbours
coming to our rescue.
Let me assure you that if I am elected
president, the world will have no cause to worry
about Nigeria as it has had to recently, that
Nigeria will return to its stabilising role in West
Africa, and that no inch of Nigerian territory
will ever be lost to the enemy because we will
pay special attention to the welfare of our
soldiers in and out of service, we will give them
adequate and modern arms and ammunitions
to work with, we will improve intelligence
gathering to choke Boko Haram's financial and
equipment channels, we will be tough on
terrorism and tough on its root causes by
initiating a comprehensive economic
development plan promoting infrastructural
development, job creation, agriculture and
industry in the affected areas.
We will always act on time and not allow
problems to irresponsibly fester, and I, General
Muhammadu Buhari, will always lead from the
front and return Nigeria to its leadership role in
regional and international efforts to combat
terrorism.
On the economy, the fall in prices of oil has
brought our economic and social stress into
full relief. After the rebasing exercise in April
2014, Nigeria overtook South Africa as Africa’s
largest economy. Our GDP is now valued at
$510 billion and our economy rated 26th in the
world. Also on the bright side, inflation has
been kept at single digit for a while and our
economy has grown at an average of 7% for
about a decade. But it is more of paper growth,
a growth that, on account of mismanagement,
profligacy and corruption, has not translated to
human development or shared prosperity. A
development economist once said three
questions should be asked about a country’s
development: one, what is happening to
poverty? Two, what is happening to
unemployment? And three, what is happening
to inequality?
The answers to these questions in Nigeria show
that the current administration has created two
economies in one country, a sorry tale of two
nations: one economy for a few who have so
much in their tiny island of prosperity; and the
other economy for the many who have so little
in their vast ocean of misery. Even by official
figures, 33.1% of Nigerians live in extreme
poverty. That’s at almost 60 million, almost the
population of the United Kingdom. There is also
the unemployment crisis simmering beneath the
surface, ready to explode at the slightest stress,
with officially 23.9% of our adult population
and almost 60% of our youth unemployed. We
also have one of the highest rates of
inequalities in the world. With all these, it is
not surprising that our performance on most
governance and development indicators (like
Mo Ibrahim Index on African Governance and
UNDP’s Human Development Index.) are
unflattering. With fall in the prices of oil, which
accounts for more than 70% of government
revenues, and lack of savings from more than a
decade of oil boom, the poor will be
disproportionately impacted.
In the face of dwindling revenues, a good place
to start the repositioning of Nigeria's economy
is to swiftly tackle two ills that have ballooned
under the present administration: waste and
corruption. And in doing this, I will, if elected,
lead the way, with the force of personal
example.
On corruption, there will be no confusion as to
where I stand. Corruption will have no place
and the corrupt will not be appointed into my
administration. First and foremost, we will plug
the holes in the budgetary process. Revenue
producing entities such as NNPC and Customs
and Excise will have one set of books only.
Their revenues will be publicly disclosed and
regularly audited. The institutions of state
dedicated to fighting corruption will be given
independence and prosecutorial authority
without political interference. But I must
emphasise that any war waged on corruption
should not be misconstrued as settling old
scores or a witch-hunt. I'm running for
President to lead Nigeria to prosperity and not
adversity.
In reforming the economy, we will use savings
that arise from blocking these leakages and the
proceeds recovered from corruption to fund our
party’s social investments programmes in
education, health, and safety nets such as free
school meals for children, emergency public
works for unemployed youth and pensions for
the elderly. As a progressive party, we must
reform our political economy to unleash the
pent-up ingenuity and productivity of the
Nigerian people thus freeing them from the
indignities of poverty.
We will run a private sector-led economy but
maintain an active role for government through
strong regulatory oversight and deliberate
interventions and incentives to diversify the
base of our economy, strengthen productive
sectors, improve the productive capacities of
our people and create jobs for our teeming
youths. In short, we will run a functional
economy driven by a worldview that sees
growth not as an end by itself, but as a tool to
create a society that works for all, rich and
poor alike. On March 28, Nigeria has a decision
to make. To vote for the continuity of failure or
to elect progressive change. I believe the people
will choose wisely.
In sum, I think that given its strategic
importance, Nigeria can trigger a wave of
democratic consolidation in Africa. But as a
starting point we need to get this critical
election right by ensuring that they go ahead
and depriving those who want to scuttle it the
benefit of derailing our fledgling democracy.
That way, we will all see democracy and
democratic consolidation as tools for solving
pressing problems in a sustainable way, not as
ends in themselves.
Permit me to close this discussion on a
personal note. I have heard and read references
to me as a former dictator in many respected
British newspapers including the well regarded
Economist. Let me say without sounding
defensive that dictatorship goes with military
rule, though some might be less dictatorial than
others.
I take responsibility for whatever happened
under my watch. I cannot change the past. But
I can change the present and the future. So
before you is a former military ruler and a
converted democrat who is ready to operate
under democratic norms and is subjecting
himself to the rigours of democratic elections
for the fourth time.
You may ask: why is he doing this? This is a
question I ask myself all the time too. And here
is my humble answer: because the work of
making Nigeria great is not yet done, because I
still believe that change is possible, this time
through the ballot, and most importantly,
because I still have the capacity and the
passion to dream and work for a Nigeria that
will be respected again in the comity of nations
and that all Nigerians will be proud of.
I thank you for listening.
