It could get very ugly -- even before the Donald Trump riots begin.
Republican strategists are already preparing to deal with the fallout of a contested convention in the event that the reality-TV-star-turned-presidential-candidate doesn't win enough delegates (1,237) prior to the start of the party's gathering in Cleveland in July.
Trump partisans have warned against a plot to "steal" the nomination, but the party's rules stipulate that if no candidate qualifies on the first ballot, delegates are given some leeway to change their selection in subsequent votes.
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And a second ballot could get mighty testy, or even violent, given that Trump warned of "bad things" from his supporters if he's close to required threshold but is still denied the nomination.
The Republican Party instituted a new set of rules for this year's contests that were designed to avoid the long, drawn-out process that prevented Mitt Romney from quickly tying up the nomination in 2012. But ironically, the front-loaded schedule and winner-take-all vote in Florida has lifted the insurgent candidate to a lead of 673 delegates to Ted Cruz's 410.
The primary schedule slows considerably over the next month, giving party activists a chance to better formulate their moves. There are no shortage of conservative pundits calling on the party's leaders to do whatever it takes to deny Trump the nomination. The alternative to a combative convention is nominating a candidate who many party leaders say doesn't reflect the conservative value or policy positions.
House Speaker Paul Ryan met on Thursday in Palm Beach with "some of the party's biggest donors" to talk about how to upend Trump, Politico reported. The meeting was part of a two-day gathering coordianted by New York hedge-fund manager and lead GOP donor, Paul Singer.
"I say they should steal it from him," David Harsanyi, senior editor at The Federalist, said in a phone interview. "Either you have the Trump folks who feel like they're going to be cheated, or you have the other side who cares about certain ideas and can't support Trump. Either way, there's no soft landing here."
Trump will have a chance to widen his leave when Arizona votes on March 22 though Cruz is expected to take Utah the same day. Trump's anti-immigrant message is likely to play well with Arizona's conservative voters. Wisconsin on April 5 is turning into a toss-up with state Republicans such as former governor Tommy Thompson supporting Kasich. The pace starts up again on April 19 when New York votes followed by five East Coast states including Pennsylvania on April 26.
The smaller candidate field and the shift to states with more urban and more educated Republican voters could bolster Kasich while Western states may favor the more socially conservative Cruz, Ruffini said. Trump needs to win 54% of the remaining delegates to secure a first-ballot nomination.
By the time California votes on June 7, Trump may find his campaign short of a first-ballot victory, opening the door to what could be a testy convention.
Trump needs to win 57% of the remaining delegates to reach 1,237 before the convention. Exactly what a second ballot might look like will become clearer after the Republican National Committee meets in April, and its rules committee gathers a week prior to the convention kick-off on July 18.
Yet a brokered nominating process may be the lesser of two evils, said Kurt Luidhardt of the Prosper Group, a Republican research and analytics firm based in Greenwood, Indiana. Trump atop a Republican ticket is likely to hurt candidates in tight congressional races, he said.
"I'm not as worried about a messy convention," Luidhardt said. "Yes, it could get kind of nasty but in the end, the party will come together and be unified in a way that Trump is incapable of doing."
Trump's weakness at the convention could come from his lack of a coordinated grassroots campaign and limited support from elected Republicans, Ruffini said. Trump's campaign team, unlike Cruz, appears to be spending little time ensuring that people who support him are chosen as his delegates, or that those who do attend the convention, are experienced with the process.
Television ratings for the Republican Convention could break all records. Donald Trump may ultimately fail at winning the nomination but his presence has lifted Republican primary voting to record highs. Whether that translates into a large GOP turnout in November strikes at the heart of the debate currently convulsing the party.
Trump's candidacy, of course, has split Republicans in unforeseen ways. Florida's Republican Governor Rick Scott this week joined Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions in calling for the party to unify around Trump. Conservatives at National Review and RedState scoffed at such notions as well as the man himself.
Scott, endorsed Trump, warning that "if we spend another four months tearing each other apart, we will damage our ability to win in November." Whether the #NeverTrump movement will succeed is unclear. Romney is helping to fund OurPrinciples PAC, headed by his former deputy campaign manager, Katie Packer, which is spending heavily on anti-Trump television ads running in primary states.
But ultimately, Trump's candidacy has forced Republican strategists to define and defend their party's values and proposals for fear they are consumed by Trump's appeal to voters angry with the party's leadership.
"If you have a nominee who doesn't share core Republican principles, a candidate who violates a lot of core principles, that's a serious problem," Ruffini said. "I think I speak for a lot of people by saying that Donald Trump is an embarrassment for the Republican Party -- I think it's a joke."
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