African Diet, Jobs Will Be Hit Hard by Climate Change

African farmers will lose much of their crops to global warming in the coming decades

Corn, beans and bananas could start to disappear from sub-Saharan Africa—where those crops are among the most important for local consumption—by century’s end. The culprit? Climate change.
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africa climate change set to wreck Bean farming

A new study of staple crops in that region, published Monday in the journalNature Climate Change, predicts that by 2025, 30 percent of land in the region currently cultivated for bananas, primarily in West Africa, will become unsuitable for the crop, say researchers with the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research. Bananas are significant for local consumption, say researchers.

Meanwhile, 60 percent of bean agriculture will cease to be productive by 2050, as will 41 percent of land currently dedicated to maize, the study says. Those crops are incredibly dominant in the sub-Saharan diet, featured in dishes ranging from githeri, a flavorful corn and bean stew, to ugali, a mush made of cornmeal and water.

Five other prominent crops—millet, sorghum, cassava, groundnut and yams—are expected to maintain production levels through 2100. Crops grown primarily for export, such as coffee, cocoa, and tea, were not studied.

The research marks the first quantification of crop “transformation”—planning for the inevitable decline of certain crops—in Africa, said lead researcher Julian Ramirez-Villegas, a research fellow at the University of Leeds. In addition to projecting crop viability through the century, researchers also describe a three three-stage process for managing the shift.

The research has serious implications for sub-Saharan Africa, said Ramirez-Villegas. Agriculture contributes nearly two-thirds of all employment in that region and food insecurity rates there are already the highest in the world. “ “It’s kind of a combination of a lot of different vulnerabilities coalescing at the same time,” said Ramirez-Villegas. “And, at the same time, agriculture is a key sector for africanAfrican livelihoods.”

As those crops fail, farmers will need to adjust, either switching crops or, in extreme cases, give up agriculture altogether. And if crop outputs diminish, that could pressure sub-Saharan Africa, already a net importer of food, to rely even more on other countries to stay fed.

Much of the land being threatened by climate change will need to be “transitioned,” said Ramirez-Villegas, and put to other use. While maize, which only became a staple in Africa over the last century, may no longer be as viable, it could be replaced with millet and sorghum, which are native to Africa (and tolerant of heat and drought), and would likely thrive. The other alternative, say researchers, could be swapping crop agriculture for another kind of farming, such as livestock. Kenyan farmers, for example, began exploring camel husbandry as a replacement for cattle—or leaving farming altogether.

Those changes would have a direct impact on the food security and diet of residents in sub-Saharan Africa. With the exception of bananas, the crops in the study are all grown primarily for domestic consumption.

”“Most of the production [studied here] is consumed locally and sold in local markets, or produced for subsistence,” said Villegas-Ramirez. “But African countries are also importing significant amounts of food.”

Researchers plan to expand their research to explore additional substitute crops, said Villegas-Ramirez, as well as project the direct impact of changes in agriculture on the diet available to residents.

Food security deadline set for Africa

As looming climate change threatens sub-Saharan Africa, a new study sets out battle plan to avoid food shortages.

For the 30% of people living in sub-Saharan Africa who are undernourished, climate change is expected to make matters significantly worse. But a new study, published inNature Climate Change, aims to prevent future environmental impacts from devastating the food supply chain in developing nations by providing both a time-scale and a framework for improved food security, the first of its kind to do so.

The study shines a light on food safety concerns facing sub-Saharan African nations that could occur directly as a result of climate change, potentially affecting half of their food sources.

Testing temperature rises of 2 and 4°C by the year 2100, researchers predicted what effect this would have on different food producing region, and then created a time-scale with suggested strategies to bypass a food security crisis.  

The significant adjustments in the way food is produced in these regions are referred to as ‘transformational adaptations’. Adaptations, such as switching to a completely different crop, might have to take place within the next 20-50 years if they are to be successful, leaving at-risk nations little time to implement the necessary changes.

Countries who rely on maize like as Botswana, beans, such as Zimbabwe and bananas, which would mainly affect large areas of West Africa, face the greatest threat from climate change making them unsuitable for growing their staple food source. In the case of bean-yielding regions, up to 60% of the land may be unsuitable for growing the crop by the end of the century.

“In this study we were trying to focus more on actionable messages by trying to put dates on things,” says co-authors Dr Sonja Vermeulen. “What surprised us was just how early some of these dates were, and the impact that such a seemingly small change has on a local population. For example, a 1% decrease in maize in South Africa means that people lose out on 2 million tonnes of maize, of which they are very dependent on.”

While the timeline states that some actions needs to be implemented now so that farmers can begin breeding crops better at withstanding heat for example, Dr Vermeulen feels the urgency portrayed in the paper is at risk of being ignored. 

“There are two things working against us - short political cycles, which result in empty promises, and the money necessary to make the changes doesn't materialise’.

Despite this she remains optimistic: “What is working in our favour is that people are really taking food security seriously. Furthermore, small changes such as improved weather forecasts, which reach 3.4 million farmers via local radio stations, make a big difference.”

Africa: How to Adapt to Beat Crippling Droughts

By

 Julian Ramirez-Villegas

FARMERS IN NYANDO KENYA

Right now, 14 million people across southern Africa face going hungry due to the prolonged drought brought on by the strongest El Niño in 50 years.

South Africa will import half of its maize and in Zimbabwe as many as 75 percent of crops have been abandoned in the worst-hit areas. With extreme weather, such as failed rains, and drought projected to become more likely as a result of climate change, some farmers are already taking matters into their own hands, and pro-actively diversifying the crops they grow.

According to new research from the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and our partners, this is precisely one of the actions that need to be taken across the whole of sub-Saharan Africa. We found that if farmers growing nine key food crops are to withstand the effects of climate change, agricultural areas need to transform - some of them very soon.

"Transformation" could involve growing different crops, introducing drought or heat-tolerant varieties of current crops, or in extreme cases it could mean moving out of crop-based agriculture altogether.

Our study showed that maize, bananas and beans - some of sub-Saharan Africa's most important staple crops - are under the most significant threat. Under the most extreme climate change scenarios, up to 30 percent of areas growing maize and bananas, and up to 60 percent of areas growing beans, need transformation before 2100.

Some parts of the region should already be in the first stage of transformation. This includes specific pockets in highly climate-exposed and sensitive areas of Guinea, Gambia, Senegal, Burkina Faso and Niger, which are currently dependent on cereals such as maize, millets and sorghum, and legumes such as groundnuts.

For other areas, action needs to be complete in the next 10 years. This includes areas in Ghana and Benin growing bananas, and maize-growing regions in Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Tanzania. Some bean-growing regions in Angola, South Africa, Uganda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe will become unsuitable by 2050 and require transformation before this time.

So how can African farmers take action before these projections become a reality?

Our study recommends a range of adaptation practices and technologies that can prolong the suitability of these areas for growing food crops.

Producing sorghum and millet, for example, instead of maize, due to their higher resistance to drought and heat, is a possibility in some areas.

But support from governments will be vital. They will need to invest in the systems producing and distributing alternative seeds, as well as in preparing processing plants, storage units and national marketing strategies that will enable the uptake of new crops.

In some places action has already been taken. The Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa initiative, for example, released 160 hardy maize varieties between 2007 and 2013, and is already benefitting 30 to 40 million people in 13 African countries.

In Senegal, weather forecasts for farmers now reach up to 7.4 million rural people via community radio and SMS. This helps farmers make critical decisions on their farms, such as when to plant, apply fertiliser, or weed their fields.

It can be a challenge to determine the most appropriate policies to enable transformation in affected areas. For local and national level planning, there are tools available now, that help policymakers understand how to effectively and equitably allocate limited resources to the most vulnerable farmers.

Climate-Smart Agriculture country profiles, that the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security has developed, are one such example. Access to adaptation finance remains critical, as well as economic incentives and robust extension services that actively involve rural people, especially women and young people.

When it comes to transformation itself, this has already been successfully achieved in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world.

For example, parts of Central America are becoming less suitable for growing coffee due to increased temperatures and a higher incidence of pests and diseases, so farmers are switching to cocoa instead.

During the drought of 2005 and 2006 in Kenya, the widespread response from pastoralists was to switch from cattle to camels, which need less water than other livestock, eat a diet of arid shrubs, and generate six times more milk than indigenous cattle. Poor markets for camel products, especially hides, are a problem. But Kenya's government is increasingly supporting the new camel keepers with restocking programmes, extension services, veterinary care and infrastructure.

The images coming out of southern Africa today are alarming, and they should serve as a warning: there is still time to adapt tomorrow's agriculture for a warmer world, but only if we start now.

Julian Ramirez-Villegas is a postdoctoral research fellow of the Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science at the School of Earth and Environment of the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom. He also works in the Decision and Policy Analysis program at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), through a Leeds-CIAT joint position funded by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security.

Africa: Bees Can Help Boost Food Security of Two Billion Small Farmers At No Cost - UN

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) today highlighted the publication of a new study that quantifies, for the first time, how much crop yields depend on the work of bees that unknowingly fertilize plants as they move from flower to flower.

In doing so, the agency says bees may have a key role to play in improving the production of some two billion smallholder farmers worldwide and ensuring the food security and nutrition of the world's growing population.

"What do cucumbers, mustard, almonds and alfalfa have in common?" asked FAO in a press release. "On the surface, very little; but there is one thing they share: they all owe their existence to the service of bees."

The agency notes that for centuries, this tiny striped helper has labored the world's fields without winning much recognition for its many contributions to food production. Wild bees, in particular, seemed doomed to slog in the shadow of their more popular cousin - the honeybee - whose day job of producing golden nectar has been far more visible and celebrated.

But FAO says bees of all stripes are finally getting their moment in the sun. The paper, published in the magazine Science, makes the case that ecological intensification - or boosting farm outputs by tapping the power of natural processes - is one of the sustainable pathways toward greater food supplies.

Food security strategies worldwide could therefore benefit from including pollination as integral component, experts say.

"Our research shows that improving pollinator density and diversity - in other words, making sure that more and more different types of bees and insects are coming to your plants - has direct impact on crop yields," said Barbara Gemmill-Herren, one of the FAO authors of the report.

"And that's good for the environment and for food security," she stressed, adding that it is beneficial to actively preserve and build habitats in and around farms for bees, birds and insects to live year-round.

Focus on developing countries

In the field study coordinated by FAO, scientists compared 344 plots across Africa, Asia and Latin America and concluded that crop yields were significantly lower in farming plots that attracted fewer bees during the main flowering season than in those plots that received more visits.

When comparing high-performing and low-performing farms of less than two hectares, the outcomes suggest that poorly performing farms could increase their yields by a median of 24 per cent by attracting more pollinators to their land.

The research also looked at larger plots and concluded that, while those fields also benefited from more pollinator visits, the impact on yields was less significant than in the smaller plots - probably because many bees have a harder time servicing large fields, far from their nesting habitat. But a diversity of bees, each with different flight capacities, can make the difference.

This suggests that bee diversity offers benefits both for small-holder farmers in developing countries, and for larger farms.

Why it matters

The research comes at a time when wild bees are threatened by a multitude of factors and managed bee populations can't keep up with the increasing number of plots that grow pollination-dependent crops.

Climate change poses yet another problem: "Bees will struggle with the higher temperatures," explained Nadine Azzu, Global Project Coordinator in FAO's Plant Production and Protection Division, who also worked on the report. "Plus, flowers in some parts of the world are now opening at different times than they used to, and the bees are not there to pollinate," she said.

This means finding ways to keep pollinators buzzing around the farm year-round is becoming even more important.

Previously unstudied

Pollinators - such as bees, birds and various types of insects that fly, hop or crawl from one flower to another - have for centuries been the invisible helpers of farmers worldwide.

Different types of bees have distinct tastes and roles to play in the food system. Bumble bees, for example, are one of the few types of bees that can successfully pollinate tomatoes, which heavily rely on buzz pollination to bear fruit.

Honey bees, in turn, are important because they are the least picky in their choice of flowers- and there are many of them, in each hive, even though their more discerning wild bee cousins are more effective in fertilizing the plants they're attracted to.

The study shows that for smallholdings, crop yield increased linearly with increased visits to the flowers that were being tracked. Pollination was the agricultural input that contributed the greatest to yields, beyond other management practices.

This holds promise for one of the major agricultural challenges of our time: How to help smallholders produce more without hurting the environment.

How to attract bees

The report also found that attracting pollinators to farms is not as easy as planting for the season and waiting for them to arrive.

Maintaining habitat and forage resources all year long is key to wooing pollinators and keeping them on the land for longer periods of time. This can be done by planting different trees and plants that flower at different times in the year, for example.

Maintaining flowering hedge rows around the farm, and mulch on the ground that bees can hide under, are additional recommended tactics to attract them, as is reducing the use of pesticides.

The key to getting the best yields probably lies in a mix of managed pollination services - that is, installing bee hives in plots at flowering time - and wild pollination, experts say.

And the latter will require farmers and policy makers to take a closer look at the ecosystems that surround farms.

"The take away from our study is that bees provide a real service and should be taken into account when we plan food security interventions," said Ms. Azzu. "And the best part is: their service is free."