READ ALSO: BARCLAYS PLAY DOWN IMPACT ON AFRICA'S EXIT
OPINION
By Christopher Kayumba
The 2016 election in
Uganda is now in the past and the most consequential job in the land was
retained by the incumbent, President Yoweri Museveni.
Thus far, pundits have variously told us what we can
learn from the exercise; the presidential debate attended by all candidates
including the incumbent; the man's re-election to a historical fifth term and
arresting his arch-rival Kizza Besigye a record five times in eight days.
But what is seminal about this election and a lesson for
the wider East Africa is that, unlike in the past, social media came off as far
more feared and considered most "dangerous" to the fortunes of the
incumbent than traditional media.
The Museveni government didn't close down a radio or
television station, a newspaper or a blog. Instead, on polling day, the
government cut off social media: Twitter, Facebook, WhatsApp and money transfer
services.
My point here isn't that traditional media is no longer
important; for Museveni himself acknowledged as much when he revealed that he
tried to influence the Daily Monitor 's reporting which he accused of
"bias" in favour of opposition candidate, Dr Kizza Besigye.
Blaming
the Daily Monitor, the president told journalists, "They would put Besigye
on top of me. They would use a picture of Besigye, exaggerating rallies and
they shrink mine or take away a part. That Monitor here, I have defeated
them."
However, it wasn't the traditional media that paid the
price through closure, but social media.
The reason given by the government for closure is
"security." On the other hand, the opposition reasoned that closure
was due to fear of exposing election fraud.
Earlier, the electoral commission had also tried to ban
the use of mobile phones and cameras on polling stations. I believe the major
reason was the fear of social media being used to mobilise mass demonstration
in the aftermath of the vote.
First, it's true that with a smartphone, evidence could
easily be captured if votes were being stolen, which evidence could be relied
upon in case outcomes were contested in court.
Secondly, it was
the unspoken word that while the opposition claimed they had entered elections
well knowing that the vote would be stolen, the government knew the opposition
planned to organise demonstrations in its aftermath, which is what the
"defiance campaign" led by Dr Besigye actually meant.
Thus, in such conditions, social media is considered far
more "dangerous." Social media is today's most effective means of
preparing and overseeing demonstrations because it connects thousands, even
millions of people and events in seconds; enabling immediate and consequential
responses.
In the process, social media has "killed"
isolation and apathy or the idea of "I'm alone in this" (for instance
injustice). While this takes away the element of fear, it makes social media
very effective tool for mobilisation, whether for the good or bad.
And once thousands are on the streets, capturing and
sending thousands of images of what's happening across the world, it's nearly
impossible to stop them. For even if the army and police are sent in, they
cannot kill thousands on camera as events in the Arab world demonstrated. In
that sense, social media has made the world a truly "global village"
and a tool to be feared by oppressors.
Social
media is today feared more like leaders in Africa or Latin America feared their
militaries in the 1970s and 1980s. For while it's no longer fashionable for the
military to take over or even be accepted once they do, unless you are Egypt,
social media can easily lead to the toppling of a dictator if not controlled.
In that sense, Museveni's government has provided a
precedent; expect his peers in the region to adopt it in future.
The good news is that while governments might be able to
control service providers and cut off such services, due to the rapidly
changing technology, in future, it might be impossible to do so.
Even in the Ugandan elections, people were able to bypass
the ban and use virtual private networks. Who knows, with the rapidly changing
technology, controlling a determined citizenry may be impossible.
Dr Christopher Kayumba, PhD, is a senior lecturer at the
School of Journalism and Communication, the University of Rwanda, and lead
consultant at MGC Consult International Ltd, Kay Plaza Building, Kimoronko
Road, Kisimenti, Kigali.
