Shift to zero-carbon power must start by 2018 to avoid extra warming: study

The world must begin the shift to zero-carbon sources of electricity as soon as 2018 to avoid adding new fossil-fuel power plants that will lock in dangerous climate change, according to a team of Oxford University researchers.

Taking the average operating life of coal or gas-fired plants as 40 years, the world's fleet of carbon-emitting power stations had already committed by 2014 a total of 87 per cent of the emissions required to ensure a 50-50 chance of reaching two degrees of warming compared with pre-industrial levels.

The window on curbing climate change is more narrow than many realise, a new study argues. Photo: Pat Scala

By 2017, the remaining stock of potential emissions will have been locked in, necessitating a transition to renewable or zero-emissions electricity from then on. Alternatively, radical technologies will be needed to sequester carbon dioxide or extract it from the atmosphere, the researchers including Australian Cameron Hepburn wrote in a paper published in Applied Energy journal.

"For policymakers who think of climate change as a long-term future issue, this should be a wake-up call," the authors said in a statement. "Whether we succeed or fail in containing warming to 2 degrees is being determined by actions we are taking right now."

Coal conundrum: shut down power plants early, but will emissions end up being higher? Photo: Paul Jones

The papers come in a week when environmental groups warned as many as 1500 coal-fired power plants are being planned or being built worldwide, scientists found coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef to be worse than first thought, and Antarctic ice sheets were declared to be melting faster than expected.

Electricity generation accounts for about one quarter of man-made greenhouse gas emissions and about one third of Australia's total. The researchers assumed other emission sources, such as transport and agriculture, would track towards a 2-degree warming limit, an assumption "which may well be optimistic", the paper notes.Australia was one of almost 200 nations to sign up to limiting warming to a 1.5-2 degree range at the Paris climate summit late last year.

The lower end of that target has been well exceeded, the researchers argue: "Meeting a 1.5-degree target without [carbon capture and storage] or asset stranding would have required all additions to the electricity sector were zero carbon from 2006 onwards, at the latest".

The Moree solar farm in NSW built by Fotowatio Renewable Ventures of Spain with Origin Energy taking its output from April 1. Photo: Supplied

Malte Meinshausen, director of Melbourne University's Climate & Energy College, said the research confirmed work by the International Energy Agency and others "that we now have enough fossil fuel infrastructure globally in place to emit a detrimental amount of carbon".

"With the correct market signals in place - such as a price on carbon emissions - it will be more economical even for the utilities to abandon fossil fuel [plants] and switch to renewable investments instead," Associate Professor Meinshausen said. "If the time for halting investments into new fossil fuel infrastructure is 2017 for the world, that time has been 10 years ago for Australia - the highest per-capita emitter in the developed world." 

Some 14,000 megawatts (MW) of wind or solar plants are seeking approval. Photo: Fairfax

As it happens, the combination of Australia's flat or declining demand for grid-supplied electricity and the need to meet the mandated 2020 Renewable Energy Target (RET) means there is little likelihood of new coal or gas-fired power plants being built in this country for at least the next decade, said Dylan McConnell, a research fellow at Melbourne University's Melbourne Energy Institute.

While there are several proposed gas projects and one black coal project in NSW at AGL's Bayswater site, renewable energy ventures are likely to meet any near-term need for additional large-scale capacity, Mr McConnell said.

Some 14,000 megawatts (MW) of wind or solar plants are seeking approval, a tally that is "certainly much more than needed for the RET", he said. "The cost curve for fossil fuel [plants] is going in the other direction."

This week, Origin Energy  signed up for its first power purchase agreement for large-scale solar, taking output from a 56 MW solar farm in Moree in northern NSW. 

"Ten years ago, 15 years ago the prospectors were in Queensland looking for [coal seam gas] resources," Grant King, Origin's chief executive, said last year. "I would think the next great round of investment in Queensland will be utility scale solar."

Origin is among the prospectors, applying to the Australian Renewable Energy Agency for funding to support a 106 MW solar farm of its own to be built on the Darling Downs next to its existing gas-fired plant.

READ ALSO : How To Prevent Global Warming

15 dead, 70 injured in India flyover collapse

Indian rescue workers and volunteers try to free people trapped under the wreckage of a collapsed fly-over bridge in Kolkata. AFP Photo - 

Emergency workers in India battled Thursday to rescue dozens of people still trapped after a flyover collapsed onto a busy street, killing at least 15 people and injuring over 100 more.

The flyover was under construction when a 100-metre (330-feet) section collapsed suddenly onto a crowded street in the eastern city of Kolkata around lunchtime, crushing pedestrians, cars and other vehicles under huge concrete slabs and metal.

Authorities said they expected the death toll to rise further, with an unknown number of people still trapped under the rubble.

"Fifteen people have been declared dead. More than 100 people have been rescued and are in hospital," said Anil Shekhawat, a spokesman for the National Disaster Response Force.

"Our five teams with equipment are on the spot, carrying out rescue operations."

Specialist rescue teams armed with concrete and metal cutters, drilling machines, sensors to detect life and sniffer dogs were dispatched to the scene.

But many of those engaged in the rescue appeared to be ordinary people who were seen trying to pull away concrete slabs with their bare hands.

Workers struggled to get cranes and other large machinery through the narrow streets of Burrabazar, one of the oldest and most congested parts of the city, where locals desperately waited for news of missing loved ones.

"Everything is finished," screamed Parbati Mondal, whose fruit-seller husband had not been seen since the accident.

An injured builder told AFP at the scene that he had been working on the structure before it collapsed and had seen bolts come out of the metal girders.

"We were cementing two iron girders for the pillars, but the girders couldn't take the weight of the cement," said 30-year-old Milan Sheikh before being taken away to hospital.

"The bolts started coming out this morning and then the flyover came crashing down."

Construction on the two-kilometer-long flyover began in 2009 and was supposed to be completed within 18 months but has suffered a series of hold-ups.

The disaster is the latest in a string of deadly construction accidents in India, where enforcement of safety rules is weak and substandard materials are often used.

'Like a bomb blast' 

Many locals said they were fleeing their houses for fear that more of the damaged structure could collapse.

"We heard a massive bang sound and our house shook violently. We thought it was an earthquake," 45-year-old resident Sunita Agarwal told AFP.

"We're leaving -- who knows what will happen next."

The disaster came just days before the World T20 cricket final, which is set to draw thousands of fans to the city this Sunday.

Television footage showed one bloodied body trapped under a concrete slab, and also the hand of a person sticking out from under twisted debris.

An eyewitness at the scene described a loud bang "like a bomb blast and suddenly there was a lot of smoke and dust".

A crane was seen lifting a mangled car from under the debris and part of a crushed bus was visible protruding from the rubble, although it was unclear if it had been carrying passengers.

K P Rao, a representative of the Indian construction company IVRCL which was contracted to build the giant flyover, called the disaster an "act of God".

The firm was given an 18-month deadline and a budget of nearly $25 million to complete the project in 2009, but after seven years only about 55 percent of the work has been done.

In 2014 the company wrote to the city's development authority to say it was running out of funds to complete the project.

Mamata Banerjee, the chief minister of West Bengal of which Kolkata is the capital, told reporters those behind the disaster would "not be spared".

- See more at: http://www.newvision.co.ug/new_vision/news/1420966/dead-injured-india-flyover-collapse#sthash.81VErB6x.dpuf

How to prevent global warming

By Peter Sunday

Global warming and climate change have become terms for the century. According to the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climatic change, 95% of global warming is caused by increasing greenhouse gases.

Furthermore, climate change impacts differ from region to region and around the globe.

Global warming leads to increase in global temperature, rising sea levels, changing population and expansion of deserts. Other changes include more frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, heavy rainfall and heavy snow fall.

Effects to humans include food security from decreased crop yields and abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels.

In a bid to mitigate its effects, most countries are parties to the United Nations frame work on climatic change whose aim is to prevent anthropogenic climatic change.

Africa is no exemption to global warming. However, Africa has come up with solutions to global warming which include effective land use planning to avoid forest degradation and developing renewable energy. But Africa is likely to be affected most by impacts of global warming such as drought, famine, and desertification and population displacement.

By pioneering renewable energy projects and establishing forward thinking innovation centers, many countries in Africa are looking to renewable energy as a solution to meet their growing energy needs in a sustainable way while working towards practical adaptation strategies to migrate global warming impacts.

Africa, along with South America and South East Asia, has experienced a significant loss of forests in past two decades. The Congo basin rain forest is the worth second largest tropical forest and spans 700,000 sq miles in six countries.

Fortunately, deforestation and forest degradation in Congo basin are historically low. New efforts, however, are underway to ensure effective land use planning balancing local subsistence needs with consideration.

Effects of global warming in Africa

Temperature rise will trigger “sharp declines in crop yield in tropical regions” estimated at 5 to 10% in Africa with an associated increase in under nourishment, Malnutrition, Malaria and related deaths.

50% of all malnutrition related deaths occur in Africa while a 2˚C rise in temperature will increase the people affected by hunger potentially by 30 to 200 million worldwide.

Globally, Africa and Western Asia will suffer the largest crop losses yet these regions depend on agriculture and are limited in purchasing power.

The African Development Bank views tackling climate change as an essential component of drawing its mission of poverty reduction and economic growth.

The African -Europe Energy partnership seeks to promote renewable energy and energy efficiency in Africa by mobilising increased, financial, technical and human resources in support of Africa’s energy development.

The Paris COP 21

The United Nations climatic change conference Cop 21 was held in Paris France from November 30 to December 12, 2015. It was the 21st yearly session of the conference of the parties (COP) of the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climatic change (UNFCCC) and the 11th session of the meeting of the parties to the 1997 Kyoto protocol.

The key result was an agreement to set a goal of limiting global warming to less than 2OC compared to pre-industrial levels.

The agreement calls for zero net antropogenic greenhouse gases emissions to be reached by the second half of the 21st century.

It also called for limiting temperatures to 1.5oc. The 1.5oc goal will require zero emissions between 2030 and 2050.

All in all, global warming is the major challenge for our global society. There is very little doubt that global warming will not change our climate in the next century. So there ought to be solutions to global warming including an inter national political solution much as funding for developing cheap and Clean energy production must be increased as well as Economic development based on increased energy usage.

The writer is an environmentalist researcher - See more at: http://www.newvision.co.ug/new_vision/news/1420967/prevent-global-warming?#sthash.XAzScRA3.dpuf

Why do people risk their lives – or the lives of others – for the perfect selfie?

Michael Weigold, University of Florida

2016 hasn’t been a great year for the selfie.
In February, Argentinian tourists passed around a baby La Plata dolphin in order to take selfies with it. The endangered animal subsequently died from stress and heat exhaustion.
Then, in early March, a swan died after a tourist dragged it from a lake in Macedonia – all for the sake of a selfie.
While both animal deaths elicited widespread anger, humans have been more likely to put their own lives at risk in order to snap the perfect photograph. In 2015, Russian authorities even launched a campaign warning that “A cool selfie could cost you your life.”
The reason? Police estimate nearly 100 Russians have died or suffered injuries from attempting to take “daredevil” selfies, or photos of themselves in dangerous situations. Examples include a woman wounded by a gunshot (she survived), two men blown up holding grenades (they did not), and people taking pics on top of moving trains.
Heights have also resulted in selfie fatalities. A Polish tourist in Seville, Spain fell off a bridge and died attempting to take a selfie. And a Cessna pilot lost control of his plane – killing himself and his passengers – while trying to take a selfie in May of 2014.
Putting oneself in harm’s way is not the only way our selfie obsession has resulted in death. One male teen – who allegedly suffering from body dysmorphic disorder – attempted suicide after spending hundreds of hours trying to take an “ideal” selfie.
People who frequently post selfies are often targets for accusations of narcissism and tastelessness. But with social networking apps like Snapchat becoming more and more popular, selfies are only proliferating.
So what’s going on here? What is it about the self-portrait that’s so resonant as a form of communication? And why, psychologically, might someone feel so compelled to snap the perfect selfie that they’d risk their life, or the lives of others (animals included)?
While there are no definitive answers, as a psychologist I find these questions – and this unique 21st-century phenomomenon – worth exploring further.

A brief history of the selfie

Robert Cornelius, an early American photographer, has been credited with taking the first selfie: in 1839, Cornelius, using one of the earliest cameras, set up his camera and ran into the shot.
The broader availability of point-and-shoot cameras in the 20th century led to more self-portraits, with many using the (still) popular method of snapping a photograph in front of a mirror.
Selfie technology took a giant leap forward with the invention of the camera phone. Then, of course, there was the introduction of the selfie stick. For a brief moment the stick was celebrated: Time named it one of the 25 best inventions of 2014. But critics quickly dubbed it the Naricisstick and the sticks are now banned in many museums and parks, including Walt Disney Resort.
Despite the criticism directed at selfies, their popularity is only growing.
Conclusive numbers seem lacking, with estimates of daily selfie posts ranging from one million to as high as 93 million on Android devices alone.
Whatever the true number, a Pew survey from 2014 suggests the selfie craze skews young. While 55 percent of millennials reported sharing a selfie on a social site, only 33 percent of the silent generation (those born between 1920 and 1945) even knew what a selfie was.
A British report from this year also suggests younger women are more active participants in selfie-taking, spending up to five hours a week on self-portraits. The biggest reason for doing so? Looking good. But other reasons included making others jealous and making cheating partners regret their infidelities.

According to one study, young women spend up to five hours per week taking selfies. Katie Hughes

Confidence booster or instrument of narcissism?

Some do see selfies as a positive development.
Psychology professor Pamela Rutledge believes they celebrate “regular people.” And UCLA psychologist Andrea Letamendi believes that selfies “allow young adults to express their mood states and share important experiences.”
Some have argued that selfies can boost confidence by showing others how “awesome” you are, and can preserve important memories.
Still, there are plenty of negative associations with taking selfies. While selfies are sometimes lauded as a means for empowerment, one European study found that time spent looking at social media selfies is associated with negative body image thoughts among young women.
Apart from injuries, fatalities and tastelessness, one big issue with selfies appears to be their function as either a cause or consequence of narcissism.
Peter Gray, writing for Psychology Today, describes narcissism as “an inflated view of the self, coupled with a relative indifference to others.”
Narcissists tend to overrate their talents and respond with anger to criticism. They are also more likely to bully and less likely to help others. According to Gray, surveys of college students show the trait is far more prevalent today than even as recently as 30 years ago.

Hey – look at me! Fab Magazine

Do selfies and narcissism correlate? Psychologist Gwendolyn Seidman suggests that there’s a link. She cites two studies that examined the prevalence of Facebook selfies in a sample of over 1,000 people.
Men in the sample who posted a greater number of selfies were more likely to show evidence of narcissism. Among female respondents, the number of selfie posts was associated only with a subdimension of narcissism called “admiration demand,” defined as “feeling entitled to special status or privileges and feeling superior to others.”
Bottom line: selfies and narcissism appear to be linked.

How we stack up against others

Selfies seem to be this generation’s preferred mode of self-expression.
Psychologists who study the self-concept have suggested that our self-image and how we project it is filtered through two criteria: believability (how credible are the claims I make about myself) and beneficiality (how attractive, talented and desirable are the claims I make about myself).
In this sense, the selfie is the perfect medium: it’s an easy way to offer proof of an exciting life, extraordinary talent and ability, unique experiences, personal beauty and attractiveness.
As a psychologist, I find it important not only to ask why people post selfies, but also to ask why anyone bothers looking at them.
Evidence suggests that people simply like viewing faces. Selfies attract more attention and more comments than any other photos, and our friends and peers reinforce selfie-taking by doling out “likes” and other forms of approval on social media.
One explanation for why people are so drawn to looking at selfies could be a psychological framework called social comparison theory.
The theory’s originator, Leon Festinger, proposed that people have an innate drive to evaluate themselves in comparison with others. This is done to improve how we feel about ourselves (self-enhancement), evaluate ourselves (self-evaluation), prove we really are the way we think we are (self-verification) and become better than we are (self-improvement).
It’s a list that suggests a range of motives that appear quite positive. But reality, unfortunately, is not so upbeat. Those most likely to post selfies appear to have lower self-esteem than those who don’t.
In sum, selfies draw attention, which seems like a good thing. But so do car accidents.
The approval that comes from “likes” and positive comments on social media is rewarding – particularly for the lonely, isolated or insecure.
However, the evidence, on balance (combined with people and animals dying!), suggests there is little to celebrate about the craze.

Michael Weigold, Professor of Advertising, University of Florida
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Urbanisation in developing countries: a completely different kettle of fish

Many developing countries are highly urbanised but lack large industrial sectors. Reuters/Akintunde Akinleye

Dietrich Vollrath, University of Houston; Doug Gollin, University of Oxford, and Remi Jedwab, George Washington University
The patterns of urbanisation in the developing world in the past few decades have diverged significantly from historical trends. For the developed world, significant urbanisation was associated with industrialisation. With the cities came the factories.
But today many developing countries, though highly urbanised, lack large industrial sectors. Nigeria, for example, has the same percentage of its population living in cities as China does.
In our forthcoming paper we find that the historically tight relationship between urbanisation and industrialisation breaks down for much of the developing world. In particular, this divergence is reflected in the large number of natural resource exporters that have urbanised without industrialising.

How it happens in natural resource exporters

We compared urbanisation rates to the share of manufacturing and services represented in GDP (2010). This indicates that non-resource exporting countries maintain a tight positive relationship between industrialisation and urbanisation. This is consistent with the historical association.
No such relationships exist for countries that rely more heavily on natural resource exports. Several resource-exporters reach 80% urbanisation rates, despite having only 20% of their GDP come from manufacturing and services.
The breakdown of the link between urbanisation and industrialisation is pronounced across regions. In Asia and Latin America urbanisation is tightly linked to shares of manufacturing and services in GDP. But in Africa and the Middle East no such association is apparent. Here an increasing share of natural resources in GDP is tightly correlated with urbanisation.

In Asia and Latin America urbanisation is tightly linked to shares of manufacturing and services in GDP. Reuters/Paulo Whitaker

Our paper makes these correlations more explicit, and confirms that they are robust. We used a sample of 116 developing countries observed each decade from 1960 to 2010. Our study shows that under a variety of specifications there is a statistically significant and economically meaningful association between resource exports and urbanisation rates.
In our preferred panel specifications, a one standard deviation increase in resource exports is associated with a 0.51 standard deviation increase in the urbanisation rate. Put more simply, it translates into roughly a 13 percentage point increase in urbanisation.
To confirm this phenomenon, we look for evidence of a causal link between resource-exports and urbanisation rates. We capture the effect of resource-led exports on urban growth by using new resource discoveries and international price shocks as a variable. Think of our approach as a kind of “difference-in-difference” estimation.
Over the study time period, countries that discovered new resources are assigned to the “treatment” group. An example is Botswana’s diamond discovery in 1968. Countries that do not experience major resource discoveries serve as the “control” or comparison group.
Our results are consistent with the cross-section and panel findings: resource exports do in fact cause a significant increase in urbanisation rates. The effect is not driven by a handful of extreme resource-exporters, such as Saudi Arabia. Instead, it holds across a whole range of developing nations. The size of the estimated effect is quite strong. This indicates that an appreciable shock to resource exports – from say a discovery – can raise the urbanisation rate by 10-12 percentage points over several decades.

Urbanisation, jobs and poverty

The effect of resources on urbanisation runs deeper than this, though. The composition of urban employment differs starkly between resource-exporters and non-exporters, holding income levels and urbanisation rates constant.
Using IPUMS census micro-data, labour force surveys and household survey data, we look at the sectoral composition of urban areas in a sub-sample of 88 countries. We find a key distinction in the labour allocations of resource-exporters and non-exporters.

China’s urban centres are best characterised as “production cities”. Reuters/Aly Song

We characterise resource-exporting urban centres as “consumption cities”. This is where a large fraction of workers are employed in non-tradable services such as commerce and transportation or personal and government services. In contrast, urban centres in China or other historical cities are best characterised as “production cities”. Here a large fraction of workers are engaged in manufacturing or in tradable services, such as finance.
This does not imply that resource-exporting cities are necessarily poorer. Unconditionally, natural resource exporters have lower poverty rates and slum shares than non-exporters. But if we control for income levels and urbanisation rates, resource exporters appear to have higher poverty rates and slum shares. The results of our comparison suggest that the positive effect of income on living standards is lower for resource exporters.
To illustrate why industrialisation and urbanisation need not be synonymous, we develop a model of structural change that features two types of urban production: tradable and non-tradable goods. The basic logic is that urbanisation is driven by income effects. Any income shock will cause a shift away from economic activities in rural areas and encourage the movement of production and people into urban areas. This is true whether the income shock is caused by industrial productivity or resource revenues.
But the source of the shock does matter for which sector the new urban workers will be employed in. With a resource shock, there is a Dutch Disease outcome. Workers substitute away from the tradable goods sector and into non-tradable. Hence the cities grow into “consumption cities”, dominated by non-tradable employment.
A productivity shock in the tradable sector pulls workers into that sector and away from rural areas. This leads to urbanisation in “production cities” being dominated by tradable production.

Implications for development

Resource-exporting countries thus urbanise without acquiring the industrial sectors that we typically associate with development. The “consumption cities” of resource-exporters may exert an influence on future growth. Much research in the growth literature suggests that convergence is faster in industrial sectors than in services. This suggests that the source of urbanisation, while inconsequential to the level of urbanisation, may be consequential for development in the long run.

Cities such as San Francisco were once “consumption cities” but have become “production cities”. Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports

Shanghai and Lagos, for example, are cities in countries with similar urbanisation rates. But it seems unlikely that at this point Lagos contains the same potential for growth as Shanghai.
At the same time, resource-led urbanisation does not necessarily imply that development is impossible. Cities such as San Francisco, Denver and Houston could be considered “consumption cities” in their past. Over time, however, they have developed into what we would term “production cities”.
We believe there is value in showing that urbanisation is more than a synonym for industrialisation. Given the widespread reliance on resource exports, especially in Africa, a significant portion of urbanisation in the developing world over the past few decades has been driven by resources. Understanding the dynamics of resource-led urbanisation will be important for thinking about the growth of cities and the process of development.
This article is an edited extract from a blog published by the International Growth Centre.

Dietrich Vollrath, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Houston; Doug Gollin, Lead Academic, Ethiopia team, University of Oxford, and Remi Jedwab, Assistant Professor of Economics and International Affairs, George Washington University
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

How serious is inbreeding in show dogs?

David Balding, University of Melbourne and Federico Calboli, University of Helsinki
A German shepherd with a sloping back that was awarded best of breed brought the dog show Crufts in for this year’s annual bout of criticism. Viewers took to social media to accuse the owner of animal cruelty by suggesting that its unusual shape meant the dog must suffer health problems brought on by inbreeding – something the owner denied. This is a common criticism levelled at dog breeders, but how accurate is it and how widespread is the issue?
Breeders of purebred dogs and other animals face a dilemma that reflects a confusion in the minds of those who believe that “purebred” is good but “inbred” is bad. Breeders want to produce animals that have certain physical and behavioural characteristics, and so they mate individuals that both carry the desired traits, which often means related individuals. The offspring are then more likely to carry genes that favour these traits, but they also have less genetic variation overall, which can lead to health problems.
The health problems may not be evident when looking at pedigree pups for sale, but the mostly-hidden side of animal breeding is the rate of ill animals produced as a consequence of intensive breeding. Purebred and inbred are two sides of the same coin.

Widespread practice

Why is reduced genetic variation bad? In general, genetic diversity produces a range of mechanisms to help living organisms cope with the different challenges of their environment. If you have a sub-optimal version (or “allele”) of a gene inherited from your father, you may avoid the problems it could cause if you also inherited a better version of that gene from mother (or vice versa). However if your mum and dad are related, then you may get the deficient gene from both parents, and then there’s no escape.
Inbreeding is sometimes measured with the probability of inheriting the same allele from both parents because they shared an ancestor in the recent past. But for any study intergenerational breeding makes it hard to decide what counts as a generation, and there is not consensus on how many generations should be included. So we have to interpret reported inbreeding measurements with caution.
To make inbreeding coefficients more meaningful, population geneticists sometimes speak of an “effective population size“. If a breed has an effective population size of 50 (a typical value for dog breeds), it means that mating practices in the breed generate the same level of inbreeding as a randomly-mating population of 50 animals (where inbreeding is caused by the small numbers rather than mating relatives).
Sometimes you might hear that an effective population size of under 50, for example, means that the population is doomed to extinction. But such rules are approximate and only apply in the wild. A population’s survival depends on its environment, which is usually benign for pedigree pups selected for sale or breeding.

Breeding in bad genes. Wikimedia Commons

So how big a problem is inbreeding in the dog training community? In 2008, we and our colleagues reported inbreeding levels in ten major dog breeds over seven generations using the records of the UK Kennel Club. We found high levels of inbreeding, corresponding to effective population sizes of just a few tens for some breeds, despite census sizes in the thousands.
Mating even between first-degree relatives was permitted then (but is now banned by the Kennel Club), yet the biggest contributor to reduced genetic variation was the phenomenon of “popular sires”: we found many sires with over 1,000 offspring. These sires inevitably carry at least a handful of genes that are likely to cause serious health problems and so become common in the whole population within just one generation.
The effects of intensive inbreeding in pedigree dogs are hard to measure, though high prevalences of specific illnesses in specific breeds are well known. For example, up to 95% of Cavalier King Charles spaniels are thought to suffer a form of brain deformation that leads to over 50% experiencing the condition syringomyelia, in which a spinal cord cyst damages the nervous system. In this way, the welfare of much-loved pets can be highly compromised by standard breeding practices.

Addressing the problem

There is no complete solution to the problem. The best health outcome for dogs is diversity in mating, which is the opposite of what breeders want to do. We suspect that many in the dog breeding world refuse to acknowledge any problem or agree to change their practice for fear of a “slippery slope” towards open registries or even the banning of dog breeds, as some animal rights activists advocate. Dog clubs have limited opportunities to make changes that are not widely supported by members. Ultimately they are like businesses and their customers (the dog breeders) can go elsewhere.
Following a hard-hitting BBC TV documentary “Pedigree dogs exposed”, broadcast in 2008, the Kennel Club did finally move to ban mating between first-degree relatives and undertook a number of other initiatives to promote dog health. It now offers an online tool that can report the relatedness of potential mates.

One possible compromise between critics and proponents of dog breeding is to select mate pairs that have the desired traits but are not closely related, which is encouraged by some Scandinavian clubs. A recent research paper supported by the UK Kennel Club reported a welcome reduction in the intensity of inbreeding in recent generations. But it also claimed, implausibly, that the loss of genetic variation in UK dog breeds is now “sustainable” and even that there was some “restoration of genetic variation”. This minimises rather than fully confronts the problem.
Finally, it’s poignant that the topic of dog inbreeding has been brought to the fore by the Crufts German shepherd. Even if breeders did their utmost to minimise inbreeding, canine health would still be in jeopardy as long as unhealthy genetic characteristics are actively selected because people believe they make the dogs look more attractive.

David Balding, Professor of Statistical Genetics, University of Melbourne and Federico Calboli, Marie Curie research fellow in genetics, University of Helsinki
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

How bringing back predators can change the way prey behaves

Craig Tambling, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University and Graham Kerley, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University

The reintroduction of lions and hyena has led animals in South Africa’s Addo Elephant National Park to behave differently

Large predator numbers are declining across the globe. These declines have considerable ecological knock-on effects, many of which are currently unknown. Novel conservation techniques are required to reverse predator declines.
One such conservation action is the reintroduction of large predators into areas from which they have been eradicated. These large predator reintroduction programmes have more than one benefit. They expand the range of many vulnerable and endangered species. They also restore ecological predator-prey interactions, as well as boosting local tourism opportunities.
The most publicised and well known of these programmes was the reintroduction of wolves into the Yellowstone National Park in the US. This resulted in an ecological cascade, or knock-on effects. There were several of these but a key one was fearful elk moving away from rivers. This in turn led to the recovery of riverine vegetation, which in turn increased the abundance of songbirds, beavers and other species.
These observations have spurred scientists worldwide to focus their efforts on trying to unravel how ecosystems respond to predator reintroductions. This focus has increased the understanding of predator-prey interactions, but has also highlighted gaps in the understanding of the role of predators.

The reintroduction of wolves in the Yellowstone National Park has had ecological knock-on effects. Shutterstock

Will it work in Africa?

Transferring the trophic cascade ideas developed in Yellowstone to African ecosystems is not a simple process. African ecosystems are extremely complex. They harbour a larger suite of predators preying on a larger suite of prey compared with Yellowstone. Add to this the considerable influence of megaherbivores, like elephants, and you have a complex jigsaw of ecological interactions.
Despite this complexity, the recent increase of large carnivore reintroductions in South Africa provides an ideal opportunity to investigate the relative influence of predators. South Africa is home to a number of large predator reintroductions. The scientific community is now gaining new insights about the effects these predators have on prey populations and behaviour, and ultimately ecosystems.
In our research we used the reintroduction of lion and spotted hyena into the Addo Elephant National Park. The aim was to investigate how these two top predators influence prospective prey species. Specifically, we compared the activity patterns of warthog, kudu, buffalo and elephant in two neighbouring, but separately fenced, sections of Addo.
Based on our research we saw changes in the behaviour and activities of prospective prey when predators were present. As was seen in Yellowstone, changes in behaviour of one species in the ecosystem can have knock-on effects. The exact nature of these knock-on effects in Addo is still under investigation.

The impact of lion and spotted hyena

In the Main Camp section, lion and spotted hyena were reintroduced in 2003 and 2004. At the time of the study, these two predators had been absent from the Nyathi section of the park for more than 100 years.
Lion and spotted hyena are active predominantly at night.
The results show that when lion and spotted hyena are present, all prospective prey species are most active during the day.
But in the Nyathi section, where predators were absent, kudu and buffalo were more active at night.
One possible consequence of this might be that kudu and buffalo save water and energy by being active at night when it’s cooler. What the long-term consequences of this behaviour might be is, however, not known.
In the presence of predators, kudu and buffalo are active at the hottest time of the day. These activity patterns mirror kudu and buffalo activity patterns elsewhere in the immediate presence of lions. This behaviour in the presence of predators may have heat stress implications. This heat stress may reduce food intake for African ungulates with long term population consequences.
Elephant and warthog were active during the day regardless of whether lion and spotted hyena were present. Even though warthog spent the night in burrows in both sections, in the presence of lions and spotted hyena, they emerged later and returned earlier thus reducing their activity when lion and spotted hyena are active.
Elephants, which are largely free from lion and spotted hyena predation, had virtually identical activity patterns in the presence and absence of lion and spotted hyena.
Another important outcome is the increased visibility of the prey species for tourism. In the absence of lion only about 5% of tourists were fortunate enough to see buffalo, one of the must see big five species, for African game viewing. After the reintroduction of lion, however, 95% of tourists recorded seeing buffalo.
So reintroducing predators has important ecological and evolutionary effects beyond simple predator conservation goals. In addition, the unintended consequence of enhanced game viewing of prey species for tourists may boost the tourism value of areas to which large predators are introduced.

Craig Tambling, Post Doctoral Fellow Zoology and the Centre for African Conservation Ecology, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University and Graham Kerley, Professor, Zoology & Director: Centre for African Conservation Ecology, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Construction worker dies after falling 53 stories from downtown LA high-rise

LOS ANGELES — A construction worker died Thursday after falling 53 floors from a high-rise building in downtown Los Angeles.
Witnesses reported the man fell shortly after noon from the Wilshire Grand, a hotel under construction that, when completed, will be the West Coast’s tallest building, said Officer Liliana Preciado, spokeswoman for the Los Angeles Police Department.
According to the Los Angeles Fire Department, an adult male was pronounced dead at the scene.
The man’s body apparently struck the back of a car that was traveling on the street, and a woman inside the vehicle was being examined by medical personnel.
“She is not injured,” LAFD spokeswoman Margaret Stewart said. “She is scared.”
Los Angeles Times staff photographer Mel Melcon was at the building on assignment when he said he heard a loud thump and saw the man’s body. The man’s body was lying off the driver’s side of the car, he said.
“It sounded like a bag of cement fell off the edge of the building,” Melcon said.
The man who fell had been working on the tower’s 53rd floor, which does not yet have windows. However, the floor is outfitted with an 8-foot-high “integrity fence” — a metal barrier intended to keep construction workers, building materials and tools from falling out of the tower.
A construction worker who spoke to the Times on condition of anonymity said he was on the ground when he and others heard a loud noise and ran to find a man’s body by a blood-spattered car.
“We asked the driver: ‘Did you run this man over?’ She said no. That’s when I knew he had fallen off the building,” the worker said.
The worker said he returned to the building to help evacuate construction employees and discovered a hard hat lying on the 53rd floor. The helmet bore the dead man’s employee number, he said.
The dead man has not been publicly identified, although a spokeswoman for the California Division of Occupational Safety and Health described him as “an electrician from ASSI.” Workers have been told that the job site will be shut down for two days for an investigation.
Although laborers at the site are required to wear tethering harnesses, no such safety device could be seen on the man’s body, or a hard hat in the vicinity of where he fell, according to witnesses.
At a news conference held at the worksite, police and construction officials said the man had worked on the construction site for just two days.
“We extend our condolences to the family,” said Chris Martin, the chief executive of Martin Project Management, which is involved in the construction of the massive building.
Asked if there was any electrical work the man could have been doing so close to the edge of the building, Martin said there wasn’t.
Sgt. Barry Montgomery, an LAPD spokesman, described the man’s death as a “tragic workplace accident.”
Neither Montgomery nor Martin would comment on whether the worker was wearing a safety harness. Martin did say that barricades have been erected at the building’s highest levels to make sure no workers go near the edge of the structure.
Reached by telephone Thursday, Michael Willey, owner of Irvine, Calif.-based ASSI Security, said the firm had been notified of the employee’s death. He said the company was not yet prepared to give a statement.
As of last week, there were about 850 workers on the site. Until now, no one had suffered serious injury at the site, according to officials.
On Thursday afternoon, police had shut down traffic at Wilshire Boulevard and Seventh, Figueroa and Flower streets.
A white tent was erected in the middle of Wilshire at the foot of the hotel, next to a white car stopped in the middle of the roadway with a passenger door open. At least a dozen men in hard hats and orange safety vests could be seen milling around the area.
Salvador Contreras, who works at a nearby valet stand on Figueroa, said he heard a very loud sound, “like when you drop a big piece of metal on concrete,” and ran around the corner to see the man’s body.
“Immediately I knew someone fell,” Contreras said.
The 1,100-foot Wilshire Grand Center — including a 100-plus-foot spire — a $1.2 billion, mixed-use office/hotel project in the Financial District, is to be completed next year, probably in the spring.
Developed by Korean Air, the tapered, glass-walled skyscraper will be topped by a domed “sky lobby” with views of the city. It will reach 30 feet higher than San Francisco’s Salesforce Tower and become what developers say is the tallest building west of the Mississippi River. Currently, that title goes to the U.S. Bank building in downtown L.A.

How Africa could leapfrog fossil fuels to clean energy alternatives

Georges Alexandre Lenferna, University of Washington

Revolutions are, as a rule, rare and momentous processes. But across the African continent the potential is ripe for a clean energy revolution that upsets and leapfrogs the old fossil-fuel order.
Globally, clean energy technology has developed at a rapid pace, and costs have plummeted – so much so that a predominately clean energy future that brings energy access to all is not only possible, but even profitable.
Africa has within its reach a future that creates a homegrown, robust, clean energy economy that keeps jobs and money on the continent. Not only will this help prevent the harms and pollution of a fossil-fuel-intensive economy, but it can also save significant amounts of money on energy costs.
Those ready to embrace a clean energy future will find resistance from the fossil-fuel industry. The industry will say that a clean energy future is not affordable or feasible – claims echoed by people like the controversial political scientist Bjorn Lomborg and even Bill Gates.
In step with the fossil-fuel industry, they argue that Africa can’t do without massive amounts of fossil fuels if it is to tackle poverty and develop. But a different future is possible.

Energy for all

Consider, for instance, the International Energy Agency’s Energy for All scenario for 2030.
The International Energy Agency projects that achieving universal electricity will increase the 2030 electricity demand by about 4% above the base case level. This is in a base case scenario where in 2030 close to one billion people still remain without access to electricity.
Only 35% will come from fossil fuels under the scenario because of grid extension costs associated with providing access to rural residents who make up 84% of those without access to energy. The rest will come from renewable generation sources such as hydro, wind and solar.
Bringing even more clean energy online is possible. As the Carbon Tracker Initiative highlights:

… the rapid emergence of renewable energy has made it likely to move Africa to a future dominated by cost-effective renewable, low-carbon electricity.

For instance, the International Energy Agency’s 2°C compatible Hi-Renewable Energy Scenario shows that Africa can generate more than 80% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2050. This requires significant upfront investment. This is where the support of rich historical polluter nations like the US is important. It is also what’s being demanded by climate justice.
But in the medium-to-long run, the costs are approximately offset by fuel cost savings, never mind all the other social and economic benefits that come with clean energy.
The International Energy Agency is also renowned for consistently underestimating both the speed with which clean energy can be scaled up and its cost-effectiveness.
In fact, a high renewable energy future could result in significant economic savings and growth for the African continent. The Solutions Project run by Stanford University’s Marc Jacobsen has developed a path to 100% renewable energy for South Africa by 2050. The project predicts that this would lead to annual energy savings of US$549 per person. Combined with the health and climate cost savings, it adds up to US$6682 saved per person.

The fossil fuel industry believes that renewable energy is too expensive to implement in Africa. Shutterstock

Fossil fuels are falling away

Renewable energy is growing at a rapid pace, partly because clean energy costs continue to plummet. Onshore wind is already competitive or cheaper than other fossil fuels. Solar is set be cost-competitive with coal power in 80% of the world by 2017.
Energy expert Amory Lovins points out:

worldwide, renewables in fair competition (no subsidies and no corruption) generally cost less than any other new electricity source and many existing ones.

That includes South Africa’s nuclear plans.
The country’s Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research has shown that wind is already providing energy that is 40% cheaper than coal. Collectively the study shows that wind and solar saved South Africa R4 billion from January to June in 2015.
Energy poverty is primarily a problem for those living in rural areas who make up 84% of those without access. That makes coal even more expensive when adding the significant grid extension costs needed to access rural communities. Clean energy, on the other hand, is a more distributed form of energy which can avoid those significant costs. In Jigar Shah’s words, evidence from around the world suggests that:

… energy is starting to look a lot like mobile phones as distributed solutions leapfrog outdated and ineffective centralised networks.

There are multiple choices ahead for Africa thanks to the rapid rise of clean energy. Compared to the fossil-fuelled status quo, clean energy has the ability to distribute power more equitably, provide cheaper energy, more energy access, cleaner air and water, and create many more jobs.
It is time to embrace the potential of a clean energy revolution.

Georges Alexandre Lenferna, South African Fulbright Scholar, PhD Student in Philosophy, University of Washington
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.